Tuesday, February 10, 2009

What's next?

If I had a crystal ball, I would not be whispering its secrets into the void. I cannot predict the future any better than the next man could, but I can consider what is to come and ponder its implications. That all being said, this is what I think might happen next.
The banks have been wounded, money is not cheap, any method of recovering the loss must be considered. The costs of acquiring the means to fuel growth have risen to the point where staying put is a challenge in and of itself. Ambition is beyond the means of the masses.
As the cost of money rises, the cost of doing business for those who rely on it so heavily also rise. The costs of the goods provided then, must also rise. To those who are able to endure this endeavor, the writing on the wall is clear. Risk is not an option, stability is the objective, so those who cannot give more than they take are slid overboard to swim for themselves.
As costs at the top rise, they trickle down into the real killing fields, the Small and Medium Businesses. These unusual entities are what the politicians refer to, somewhat unknowingly, as "main street." But on main street, rising costs slaughter margins and enterprise slips woefully into loss. Those without the stomachs or the wallets to endure the wear and tear of negative growth simply fold up their hopes and dreams into their briefcases, and wander home. At some point, you have to pay the mortgage; which is a challenge when you're putting more money in at the office than you're getting out. After all, those who drive industry cultivate skills which maintain value even when they cannot leverage that value effectively in their own endeavors. There will be other jobs for these people to take.
The same may not be true for those that they had given purpose to. When the shop closes, who does the clerk turn to? Their function, up to that point, had been encapsulated in an organism that created value through the organized application of their labor. Alone, there is little that they can do; except to go home and apply for unemployment insurance.
As the efficiencies created through thousands of years of applied man effort are suddenly lost, the cost of provisioning anything, in real terms of effort applied, rises. The scarcity of money ceases to be an issue, as the real world cost of provisioning everything grows. We respond by infusing money, attempting to dilute this most unpleasant concentration of pain. In the process, we simply dilute the value of the money. This is the truest sense of inflation.
As the masses begin to suffer, with or without the thin blanket that government aid has wrought them, the businesses that simply closed awaiting better conditions are slowly dissolved in an acidic wash of depreciating assets and uncontrolled inflation. The value which had previously been salvaged and preserved scatters like dust in the wind.
The banks, grumpy and weary, lack the necessary resources to do anything but lose value. They too, begin to clear out their desks. What is to be gained through losing?
Rinse, repeat.

Is this dramatic and dire? Of course. We can all hope against all hope that it will never come to these most unpleasant conditions. However, it is critical to realize that while it does not seem so at this point, such an outcome is exceptionally possible, and rests, invisibly, but a razors edge from our present state.
What can we do? We must keep the furnaces burning. We cannot rest, even for a moment, to catch our breath. We must do what we can to fuel the fires, to equip those who would rather fight than give with up the weapons that they need to wage war on our decaying condition. Are these the banks? Are they the huddled masses? The captains of industry? No. The banks and the big businesses are too big for the government to save. There simply isn't enough paper to print all of the T-Bills it would take to finance the continuing operation of the largest segment of the american economy at efficient scale when the required demand does not exist. Similarly, printing money and giving it to bankers might allow them to forestall a few mortgage calls, but the fundamental problems remain unchanged. Even if they had the money to lend, it makes no sense for their largest customers to take it in an economy where it seems unlikely that they would be able to both profit and pay it back.
So who do we help? We help the keystones, the Small and Medium Businesses. These are the tireless, and stubborn individuals who left their posts within the system because they felt the deep desire to go out and make something where nothing existed before. They will fight for they have worked tirelessly to build, and in so doing, will marshal an army of engaged organization that will fight against the darkness until they beat it back, or succumb.
How do we help? We fix the margins. While the cost of goods and services in the absence of scale cannot be easily helped, the government's cut can. If we are now so determined to inject capital by borrowing money on an unprecedented scale, we cannot we also simply consider the possibility of collecting a little less? If the government tightens its own belt, those of us who are forced to feed it three times a day may just be able to carry on a little longer, and more importantly, those who we employ will carry on with us. Maybe, just maybe, we might start to even see a way out of this mess; lord knows everyone out there who is wondering if they will be able to make payroll three months from now is searching with unbearable purpose for a path through the darkness. We should do whatever we can to help them in their quest.

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